आज, भारतीय रिजर्व बैंक ने मार्च 2020 चक्र के उपभोक्ता विश्वास सर्वेक्षण (CCS)1 के परिणाम जारी किए। ये सर्वेक्षण 13 बड़े शहरों – अहमदाबाद, बेंगलुरु, भोपाल, चेन्नई, दिल्ली, गुवाहाटी, हैदराबाद, जयपुर, कोलकाता, लखनऊ, मुंबई, पटना और तिरुवनंतपुरम में फ़रवरी 27 से मार्च 7, 2020 के बीच आयोजित किया गया था। इसमें सामान्य आर्थिक स्थिति, रोजगार परिदृश्य, समग्र मूल्य स्थिति और पारिवारिक इकाइयों की आय और व्यय के संबंध में 5,365 पारिवारिक इकाइयों की धारणाओं और अपेक्षाओं के लिए प्रतिक्रियाएं प्राप्त की गईं।
विशेष:
I. मार्च 2020 के आरंभ में वर्तमान स्थिति सूचकांक (CSI) द्वारा किए गए माप के अनुसार उपभोक्ता विश्वास, आम तौर पर, पिछले सर्वेक्षण चक्र में दर्ज ऐतिहासिक न्यूनतम के आस-पास रहा। भावी अपेक्षाओं के सूचकांक (FEI)2 के अनुसार, आने वाले वर्ष के लिए उम्मीदें पिछले चक्र में जैसी थीं वैसी ही रहीं (चार्ट 1)।
नोट: कृपया समय शृखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।
II. सामान्य आर्थिक स्थिति, रोजगार परिदृश्य और घरेलू आय पर भावनाएं निराशावादी बनी रहीं (तालिका 1, 2 और 5); हालांकि, आने वाले वर्ष के लिए उम्मीदों में कुछ सुधार हुए।
III. यद्यपि परिवारों ने मुद्रास्फीति दबावों में कुछ सहजता महसूस की (तालिका 3 और 4); तथापि, इच्छित व्ययों पर भावनाएं संकुचन क्षेत्र (तालिका 8) में बनी रही।
| Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Improved |
Remained Same |
Worsened |
Net Response |
Will Improve |
Will Remain Same |
Will Worsen |
Net Response |
| Mar-19 |
46.2 |
21.3 |
32.5 |
13.7 |
66.4 |
15.8 |
17.8 |
48.6 |
| May-19 |
38.8 |
23.6 |
37.7 |
1.1 |
61.4 |
17.7 |
20.9 |
40.5 |
| Jul-19 |
37.4 |
24.2 |
38.4 |
-1.0 |
59.4 |
16.0 |
24.6 |
34.8 |
| Sep-19 |
33.5 |
18.6 |
47.9 |
-14.4 |
53.2 |
15.0 |
31.8 |
21.4 |
| Nov-19 |
30.0 |
18.4 |
51.6 |
-21.6 |
48.9 |
16.5 |
34.7 |
14.2 |
| Jan-20 |
27.1 |
18.0 |
54.9 |
-27.8 |
48.8 |
14.3 |
36.9 |
11.9 |
| Mar-20 |
28.4 |
19.3 |
52.3 |
-23.9 |
49.8 |
15.6 |
34.7 |
15.1 |
| Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Improved |
Remained Same |
Worsened |
Net Response |
Will Improve |
Will Remain Same |
Will Worsen |
Net Response |
| Mar-19 |
41.1 |
21.7 |
37.2 |
3.9 |
65.3 |
15.9 |
18.9 |
46.4 |
| May-19 |
33.7 |
22.1 |
44.2 |
-10.5 |
59.3 |
17.6 |
23.1 |
36.2 |
| Jul-19 |
32.5 |
21.9 |
45.6 |
-13.1 |
56.7 |
17.5 |
25.8 |
30.9 |
| Sep-19 |
28.0 |
19.5 |
52.5 |
-24.5 |
51.2 |
15.4 |
33.4 |
17.8 |
| Nov-19 |
24.4 |
18.1 |
57.5 |
-33.1 |
46.3 |
17.7 |
36.0 |
10.3 |
| Jan-20 |
24.6 |
17.8 |
57.7 |
-33.1 |
48.4 |
16.3 |
35.4 |
13.0 |
| Mar-20 |
25.2 |
19.1 |
55.7 |
-30.5 |
48.8 |
17.1 |
34.1 |
14.7 |
| Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Mar-19 |
77.8 |
16.4 |
5.8 |
-72.0 |
68.7 |
20.5 |
10.9 |
-57.8 |
| May-19 |
81.6 |
14.1 |
4.3 |
-77.3 |
70.3 |
18.7 |
11.0 |
-59.3 |
| Jul-19 |
81.7 |
15.0 |
3.3 |
-78.4 |
73.9 |
16.1 |
10.0 |
-63.9 |
| Sep-19 |
86.1 |
10.6 |
3.3 |
-82.8 |
75.9 |
13.8 |
10.3 |
-65.6 |
| Nov-19 |
86.8 |
10.2 |
2.9 |
-83.9 |
78.0 |
14.1 |
7.9 |
-70.1 |
| Jan-20 |
90.6 |
7.6 |
1.9 |
-88.7 |
76.9 |
12.9 |
10.2 |
-66.7 |
| Mar-20 |
87.2 |
10.3 |
2.6 |
-84.6 |
78.1 |
14.2 |
7.7 |
-70.4 |
| Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Mar-19 |
72.5 |
20.0 |
7.6 |
-64.9 |
72.9 |
20.8 |
6.3 |
-66.6 |
| May-19 |
74.4 |
20.8 |
4.8 |
-69.6 |
76.7 |
18.5 |
4.8 |
-71.9 |
| Jul-19 |
72.5 |
22.3 |
5.2 |
-67.3 |
77.8 |
18.0 |
4.1 |
-73.7 |
| Sep-19 |
74.2 |
19.5 |
6.3 |
-67.9 |
77.9 |
16.1 |
6.1 |
-71.8 |
| Nov-19 |
77.2 |
17.4 |
5.5 |
-71.7 |
77.3 |
17.3 |
5.4 |
-71.9 |
| Jan-20 |
84.9 |
11.2 |
4.0 |
-80.9 |
80.3 |
14.7 |
5.0 |
-75.3 |
| Mar-20 |
80.8 |
15.7 |
3.5 |
-77.3 |
75.6 |
20.3 |
4.1 |
-71.5 |
| *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
| Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Mar-19 |
30.1 |
50.0 |
19.9 |
10.2 |
60.8 |
33.4 |
5.7 |
55.1 |
| May-19 |
29.0 |
50.2 |
20.8 |
8.2 |
58.9 |
35.1 |
6.0 |
52.9 |
| Jul-19 |
25.8 |
51.3 |
22.9 |
2.9 |
55.4 |
37.7 |
6.9 |
48.5 |
| Sep-19 |
25.0 |
48.3 |
26.7 |
-1.7 |
53.0 |
37.4 |
9.6 |
43.4 |
| Nov-19 |
24.1 |
49.2 |
26.7 |
-2.6 |
52.8 |
38.9 |
8.3 |
44.5 |
| Jan-20 |
21.9 |
51.2 |
26.9 |
-5.0 |
51.9 |
38.9 |
9.2 |
42.7 |
| Mar-20 |
22.7 |
52.4 |
24.9 |
-2.2 |
52.0 |
40.2 |
7.8 |
44.2 |
| Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Mar-19 |
70.1 |
26.8 |
3.1 |
67.0 |
77.5 |
19.9 |
2.6 |
74.9 |
| May-19 |
68.6 |
28.0 |
3.4 |
65.2 |
74.7 |
22.5 |
2.9 |
71.8 |
| Jul-19 |
71.7 |
25.0 |
3.4 |
68.3 |
76.8 |
20.1 |
3.2 |
73.6 |
| Sep-19 |
74.1 |
22.0 |
3.8 |
70.3 |
77.0 |
19.0 |
4.0 |
73.0 |
| Nov-19 |
73.2 |
23.4 |
3.4 |
69.8 |
77.4 |
19.0 |
3.6 |
73.8 |
| Jan-20 |
76.3 |
20.5 |
3.2 |
73.1 |
78.7 |
17.3 |
4.0 |
74.7 |
| Mar-20 |
72.6 |
24.0 |
3.4 |
69.2 |
75.8 |
20.7 |
3.5 |
72.3 |
| Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Mar-19 |
78.6 |
18.2 |
3.2 |
75.4 |
83.4 |
14.3 |
2.3 |
81.1 |
| May-19 |
80.0 |
17.1 |
2.9 |
77.1 |
80.7 |
16.5 |
2.8 |
77.9 |
| Jul-19 |
81.7 |
15.7 |
2.6 |
79.1 |
82.9 |
14.3 |
2.8 |
80.1 |
| Sep-19 |
83.8 |
13.6 |
2.6 |
81.2 |
83.0 |
13.7 |
3.3 |
79.7 |
| Nov-19 |
83.6 |
13.6 |
2.7 |
80.9 |
83.0 |
13.9 |
3.1 |
79.9 |
| Jan-20 |
85.3 |
12.2 |
2.6 |
82.7 |
83.7 |
12.9 |
3.4 |
80.3 |
| Mar-20 |
83.0 |
14.6 |
2.4 |
80.6 |
82.1 |
15.0 |
2.9 |
79.2 |
| Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Mar-19 |
36.3 |
43.3 |
20.4 |
15.9 |
46.1 |
37.6 |
16.3 |
29.8 |
| May-19 |
32.7 |
40.3 |
27.0 |
5.7 |
39.4 |
37.3 |
23.3 |
16.1 |
| Jul-19 |
31.0 |
44.9 |
24.1 |
6.9 |
36.2 |
42.2 |
21.6 |
14.6 |
| Sep-19 |
29.9 |
40.0 |
30.1 |
-0.2 |
34.7 |
39.2 |
26.0 |
8.7 |
| Nov-19 |
27.5 |
42.4 |
30.1 |
-2.6 |
33.4 |
43.0 |
23.5 |
9.9 |
| Jan-20 |
28.0 |
37.3 |
34.6 |
-6.6 |
34.3 |
37.8 |
27.9 |
6.4 |
| Mar-20 |
27.7 |
42.0 |
30.3 |
-2.6 |
32.4 |
43.5 |
24.1 |
8.3 |
|