भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक

प्रकाशन

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण

आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)¹ के नवंबर 2019 चक्र के परिणाम जारी किए। सर्वेक्षण 18 प्रमुख शहरों में आयोजित किया गया था और इसके परिणाम 5,805 शहरी परिवारों के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित हैं।

विशेष:

i. परिवारों की मुद्रास्फीति धारणाओं और अपेक्षाओं में पिछले चक्र की वृद्धि के बाद भी नवंबर 2019 चक्र में तीव्र वृद्धि हुई। तीन महीने आगे और एक वर्ष आगे के लिए मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाएं क्रमश: 120 आधार अंक और 180 आधार अंक से बढ़ गई (चार्ट 1 a, 1 b, तालिका 2)।

ii. पिछले दौर की तुलना में अधिक परिवारों को आगे के तीन महीने आगे और आगे के एक साल के लिए सभी उत्पाद समूहों में मुद्रास्फीति बढ़ने की उम्मीद है (तालिका 1 b)।

नोट: कृपया समय श्रृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended	Nov-18		May-19		Jul-19		Sep-19		Nov-19
General	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
Prices will increase	77.9	0.91	78.3	1.01	77.9	0.95	79.3	0.94	80.7	0.90
Price increase more than current rate	47.4	1.12	50.0	1.22	49.8	1.15	49.0	1.23	52.4	1.22
Price increase similar to current rate	25.6	1.00	25.6	1.01	24.7	0.98	25.1	1.04	23.4	0.96
Price increase less than current rate	4.9	0.59	2.8	0.32	3.4	0.38	5.2	0.51	4.9	0.55
No changes in prices	19.2	0.87	18.4	0.96	18.5	0.88	18.6	0.92	17.3	0.84
Decline in prices	2.9	0.33	3.3	0.35	3.6	0.39	2.1	0.29	1.9	0.26
Food Product
Prices will increase	77.2	0.89	78.5	0.87	80.0	0.87	81.4	0.86	81.8	0.80
Price increase more than current rate	46.4	1.03	48.5	1.13	48.5	1.09	52.9	1.14	54.8	1.14
Price increase similar to current rate	23.6	0.91	24.7	0.94	25.7	1.01	21.4	0.88	21.0	0.85
Price increase less than current rate	7.3	0.63	5.4	0.46	5.8	0.47	7.1	0.59	6.0	0.54
No changes in prices	16.9	0.81	15.0	0.77	13.8	0.75	13.2	0.78	12.3	0.65
Decline in prices	5.9	0.46	6.5	0.47	6.2	0.52	5.4	0.45	5.9	0.48
Non- Food Product
Prices will increase	75.8	0.90	75.8	0.91	73.8	0.97	74.7	0.95	75.3	0.93
Price increase more than current rate	45.2	1.07	45.2	1.15	43.1	1.14	45.5	1.16	48.0	1.14
Price increase similar to current rate	24.1	0.94	25.3	0.91	25.2	0.93	21.8	0.90	21.1	0.86
Price increase less than current rate	6.5	0.61	5.4	0.44	5.5	0.46	7.3	0.57	6.1	0.53
No changes in prices	18.5	0.79	18.1	0.81	20.4	0.90	20.8	0.88	20.5	0.83
Decline in prices	5.8	0.48	6.0	0.47	5.8	0.48	4.5	0.42	4.3	0.39
Household Durables
Prices will increase	57.9	1.06	61.3	1.12	57.9	1.07	56.2	1.07	55.2	1.09
Price increase more than current rate	33.8	1.03	37.0	1.12	33.7	1.05	33.9	1.11	35.4	1.06
Price increase similar to current rate	18.9	0.80	19.9	0.85	19.6	0.81	17.3	0.80	15.2	0.73
Price increase less than current rate	5.2	0.50	4.3	0.41	4.6	0.41	4.9	0.45	4.6	0.44
No changes in prices	29.7	0.98	27.2	1.01	28.2	0.96	28.5	0.96	29.1	0.93
Decline in prices	12.4	0.66	11.5	0.64	13.9	0.67	15.4	0.73	15.8	0.73
Cost of Housing
Prices will increase	68.7	0.96	70.9	1.06	68.6	1.01	68.1	1.10	68.5	1.09
Price increase more than current rate	44.5	1.05	46.9	1.13	45.2	1.04	45.2	1.23	48.3	1.19
Price increase similar to current rate	19.0	0.83	19.8	0.83	19.4	0.82	17.9	0.81	16.4	0.77
Price increase less than current rate	5.2	0.51	4.2	0.39	4.0	0.38	5.0	0.44	3.8	0.41
No changes in prices	23.7	0.88	21.7	0.96	22.8	0.90	23.1	0.98	24.0	0.99
Decline in prices	7.6	0.54	7.3	0.52	8.6	0.58	8.7	0.59	7.4	0.53
Cost of Services
Prices will increase	68.2	0.99	68.6	1.03	66.1	1.03	63.5	1.04	65.8	1.05
Price increase more than current rate	40.4	1.06	42.6	1.14	39.8	1.07	40.2	1.15	43.6	1.14
Price increase similar to current rate	22.4	0.86	21.7	0.89	21.6	0.83	18.1	0.76	17.7	0.79
Price increase less than current rate	5.3	0.48	4.3	0.41	4.7	0.42	5.3	0.45	4.5	0.46
No changes in prices	28.8	0.97	27.7	0.99	28.7	0.94	31.6	1.00	29.5	1.01
Decline in prices	3.0	0.35	3.8	0.37	5.3	0.46	4.8	0.42	4.7	0.43
Note: 1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses. 2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended	Nov-18		May-19		Jul-19		Sep-19		Nov-19
General	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
Prices will increase	89.7	0.65	86.3	0.77	83.8	0.87	87.0	0.78	89.1	0.71
Price increase more than current rate	60.0	1.11	58.5	1.19	56.8	1.15	57.3	1.29	64.0	1.25
Price increase similar to current rate	26.4	0.97	24.9	1.03	24.1	1.01	25.1	1.07	21.5	0.96
Price increase less than current rate	3.4	0.43	3.0	0.32	2.9	0.35	4.6	0.47	3.6	0.44
No changes in prices	7.6	0.57	10.2	0.70	12.6	0.78	10.6	0.73	8.9	0.64
Decline in prices	2.7	0.33	3.5	0.37	3.6	0.40	2.4	0.31	2.0	0.28
Food Product
Prices will increase	85.4	0.73	83.1	0.76	81.9	0.80	83.0	0.86	86.2	0.74
Price increase more than current rate	52.3	1.14	50.4	1.19	49.3	1.16	52.2	1.23	58.9	1.24
Price increase similar to current rate	27.5	0.96	27.6	0.97	27.7	0.98	25.4	0.96	22.4	0.90
Price increase less than current rate	5.7	0.51	5.1	0.43	4.8	0.42	5.4	0.53	5.0	0.49
No changes in prices	9.4	0.60	11.4	0.64	12.0	0.67	11.9	0.76	9.4	0.61
Decline in prices	5.2	0.45	5.5	0.43	6.1	0.49	5.2	0.43	4.4	0.39
Non- Food Product
Prices will increase	82.4	0.78	81.3	0.81	78.1	0.89	78.6	0.94	81.0	0.82
Price increase more than current rate	51.6	1.10	49.7	1.18	46.1	1.11	48.1	1.25	53.5	1.23
Price increase similar to current rate	25.2	0.90	26.8	0.99	27.1	0.97	24.4	0.98	22.6	0.92
Price increase less than current rate	5.6	0.50	4.9	0.44	4.9	0.44	6.1	0.52	4.9	0.51
No changes in prices	12.7	0.68	13.7	0.72	16.6	0.80	16.6	0.85	15.5	0.72
Decline in prices	4.9	0.43	5.0	0.43	5.3	0.47	4.8	0.43	3.6	0.36
Household Durables
Prices will increase	70.1	0.98	68.8	1.04	66.2	1.01	64.1	1.04	65.4	1.00
Price increase more than current rate	43.0	1.10	42.9	1.14	39.8	1.08	39.0	1.17	42.7	1.16
Price increase similar to current rate	22.0	0.88	21.9	0.88	22.0	0.91	19.4	0.82	18.1	0.80
Price increase less than current rate	5.1	0.47	4.0	0.40	4.3	0.39	5.6	0.49	4.6	0.46
No changes in prices	20.4	0.85	21.5	0.91	23.0	0.89	24.2	0.90	22.5	0.84
Decline in prices	9.6	0.61	9.7	0.59	10.9	0.61	11.8	0.64	12.1	0.62
Cost of Housing
Prices will increase	80.6	0.79	79.8	0.84	76.9	0.89	77.3	0.89	80.0	0.92
Price increase more than current rate	53.8	1.04	54.3	1.05	52.1	1.00	51.8	1.15	57.1	1.20
Price increase similar to current rate	22.5	0.91	21.9	0.84	21.5	0.83	20.6	0.85	19.1	0.85
Price increase less than current rate	4.3	0.44	3.6	0.37	3.4	0.34	4.8	0.45	3.9	0.41
No changes in prices	13.3	0.68	14.3	0.77	15.3	0.75	15.5	0.73	13.9	0.76
Decline in prices	6.1	0.50	5.9	0.45	7.8	0.55	7.2	0.53	6.1	0.48
Cost of Services
Prices will increase	83.3	0.75	80.9	0.83	77.1	0.93	79.0	0.93	80.9	0.87
Price increase more than current rate	52.2	1.11	50.3	1.12	47.2	1.12	50.0	1.23	53.7	1.23
Price increase similar to current rate	25.7	0.92	25.3	0.94	25.2	0.95	22.7	0.93	22.3	0.86
Price increase less than current rate	5.4	0.48	5.3	0.49	4.6	0.43	6.3	0.51	4.9	0.51
No changes in prices	13.5	0.68	15.5	0.77	17.8	0.82	17.2	0.85	15.9	0.77
Decline in prices	3.1	0.34	3.6	0.36	5.2	0.47	3.8	0.38	3.2	0.36
Note: 1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses. 2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: November 2019

	Current Perception				Three Months ahead Expectation				One Year ahead Expectation
	Mean		Median		Mean		Median		Mean		Median
	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
Overall	9.1	0.10	8.2	0.17	9.8	0.11	9.2	0.23	9.7	0.12	9.9	0.19
Gender-wise
Male	9.1	0.13	8.3	0.19	9.7	0.14	9.3	0.29	9.4	0.18	9.4	0.36
Female	9.1	0.15	8.2	0.24	9.9	0.15	9.1	0.28	9.9	0.17	10.1	0.18
Category-wise
Financial Sector Employees	7.9	0.37	7.3	0.51	8.4	0.41	7.7	0.64	8.5	0.47	8.3	0.49
Other Employees	9.0	0.20	8.4	0.29	9.7	0.21	9.1	0.40	10.0	0.22	10.0	0.33
Self Employed	9.5	0.20	9.1	0.47	10.1	0.21	10.0	0.28	9.7	0.26	10.0	0.33
Homemaker	9.1	0.17	8.3	0.25	10.0	0.17	9.3	0.33	9.9	0.20	10.1	0.18
Retired Persons	9.6	0.33	9.6	0.67	10.3	0.36	10.1	0.34	9.8	0.45	10.0	0.44
Daily Workers	9.4	0.26	8.9	0.53	10.4	0.27	10.2	0.26	9.8	0.34	10.2	0.29
Other category	8.4	0.24	7.6	0.32	9.2	0.24	8.5	0.33	9.4	0.27	9.0	0.40
Age Group-wise
Up to 25 years	8.4	0.18	7.7	0.24	9.1	0.19	8.6	0.28	9.5	0.23	9.4	0.38
25 to 30 years	9.0	0.18	8.1	0.31	9.8	0.19	9.1	0.34	9.9	0.22	9.9	0.30
30 to 35 years	8.8	0.20	8.0	0.33	9.6	0.21	8.8	0.37	9.5	0.25	9.9	0.32
35 to 40 years	9.3	0.20	8.6	0.36	10.1	0.20	9.6	0.37	9.8	0.26	10.1	0.24
40 to 45 years	9.1	0.24	8.3	0.29	9.8	0.25	9.2	0.41	9.5	0.29	9.7	0.46
45 to 50 years	9.3	0.26	8.6	0.58	10.1	0.27	9.8	0.47	9.7	0.32	9.8	0.51
50 to 55 years	9.4	0.27	8.6	0.51	10.2	0.28	9.8	0.52	9.6	0.35	9.8	0.67
55 to 60 years	9.7	0.31	9.6	0.55	10.4	0.33	10.1	0.33	10.1	0.39	10.4	0.24
60 years and above	9.4	0.30	8.8	0.55	10.1	0.30	9.9	0.47	9.4	0.39	9.7	0.69
City-wise
Ahmedabad	9.8	0.29	9.8	0.46	10.6	0.32	10.3	0.29	10.1	0.41	10.4	0.33
Bengaluru	7.1	0.37	5.8	0.26	8.3	0.37	7.3	0.45	8.6	0.39	8.0	0.48
Bhopal	8.0	0.63	6.5	0.71	9.1	0.66	8.4	0.91	9.3	0.64	9.5	0.90
Bhubaneswar	7.3	0.65	6.1	0.53	8.1	0.71	7.2	0.85	7.3	1.51	7.2	2.10
Chennai	10.4	0.55	10.1	0.52	11.3	0.56	11.0	0.99	11.9	0.42	12.8	1.36
Delhi	8.2	0.20	7.1	0.38	8.9	0.22	8.0	0.34	9.1	0.26	8.8	0.49
Guwahati	6.8	0.77	6.0	0.54	6.9	0.83	6.0	0.66	7.0	1.17	6.7	1.07
Hyderabad	11.0	0.47	10.8	0.57	12.2	0.43	13.0	1.10	12.7	0.36	14.7	0.92
Jaipur	8.4	0.38	7.7	0.40	8.9	0.39	8.2	0.47	8.4	0.71	8.6	0.76
Kolkata	9.8	0.30	9.1	0.68	10.4	0.32	9.9	0.48	10.5	0.34	10.1	0.55
Lucknow	10.4	0.52	10.2	0.48	11.2	0.65	11.5	1.27	10.3	0.88	11.0	1.42
Mumbai	10.0	0.25	9.8	0.37	10.3	0.33	10.2	0.31	9.1	0.41	9.9	0.53
Nagpur	8.8	0.55	7.5	0.77	10.1	0.46	9.3	0.69	10.3	0.56	10.1	0.44
Patna	7.1	0.29	6.9	0.44	7.5	0.33	7.3	0.47	7.7	0.45	7.8	0.57
Thiruvananthapuram	6.4	0.45	5.6	0.33	7.9	0.60	6.9	0.68	9.8	0.67	9.1	0.89
Chandigarh	8.7	0.86	8.1	1.02	8.8	0.74	8.5	0.80	8.7	0.79	8.5	0.89
Ranchi	6.5	0.55	5.8	0.42	6.2	0.59	5.8	0.61	5.9	1.11	5.8	0.97
Raipur	9.0	0.63	8.0	1.13	9.3	0.66	8.3	1.14	7.2	0.76	6.5	1.05
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses for the November 2019 round.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations

	Current Perception				Three Months ahead Expectation				One Year ahead Expectation
	Mean		Median		Mean		Median		Mean		Median
	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
Nov-18	9.1	0.11	8.2	0.18	9.7	0.12	9	0.22	9.6	0.12	9.8	0.25
May-19	7.8	0.10	6.6	0.15	8.6	0.10	7.6	0.12	8.4	0.12	8.1	0.16
Jul-19	7.9	0.10	6.6	0.15	8.6	0.10	7.6	0.12	8.3	0.13	7.9	0.18
Sep-19	8.2	0.12	7.1	0.18	8.9	0.12	8	0.15	8.6	0.13	8.1	0.19
Nov-19	9.1	0.10	8.2	0.17	9.8	0.11	9.2	0.23	9.7	0.12	9.9	0.19
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended	Food	Non-Food	Households durables	Housing	Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Nov-18	65.6	66.8	56.5	61.4	66.2
May-19	66.4	65.4	56.8	62.0	66.2
Jul-19	66.1	65.5	55.3	60.8	65.0
Sep-19	62.7	62.1	50.2	56.8	61.2
Nov-19	64.7	65.1	51.0	60.7	63.1
One Year Ahead
Nov-18	73.5	72.3	62.7	67.7	73.2
May-19	71.6	71.3	62.7	70.7	72.5
Jul-19	72.3	71.2	61.5	70.0	72.4
Sep-19	70.7	67.5	56.8	65.5	70.0
Nov-19	73.9	70.9	57.8	69.7	72.3
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: November 2019
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)		<1	1- <2	2- <3	3- <4	4- <5	5- <6	6- <7	7- <8	8- <9	9- <10	10- <11	11- <12	12- <13	13- <14	14- <15	15- <16	>=16	No idea	Total
	<1	8	1	6	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20
	1-<2	2	29	12	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	45
	2-<3	3	7	96	52	36	9	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	209
	3-<4	3	2	8	124	55	48	24	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	266
	4-<5	1	1	8	15	160	87	55	12	8	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	350
	5-<6	4	6	20	28	16	509	172	196	85	14	70	1	0	0	0	5	1	1	1128
	6-<7	1	2	2	3	2	9	199	73	65	10	16	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	383
	7-<8	0	0	2	2	6	8	3	185	105	69	51	3	4	1	3	3	1	1	447
	8-<9	1	0	1	1	3	6	10	2	159	81	99	9	12	4	1	6	4	0	399
	9-<10	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	4	89	51	20	11	1	3	3	2	0	187
	10-<11	0	0	4	3	3	30	6	18	23	6	426	67	149	46	12	163	65	3	1024
	11-<12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	19	27	5	3	8	2	1	66
	12-<13	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	2	2	0	43	10	9	23	7	0	99
	13-<14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8	10	9	5	0	33
	14-<15	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	10	9	13	0	35
	15-<16	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	7	0	1	1	0	83	103	1	201
	>=16	0	0	0	0	1	7	0	2	0	0	15	0	0	0	0	18	857	13	913
	Total	23	48	161	234	283	718	477	491	450	273	742	120	247	77	51	330	1060	20	5805
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: November 2019
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)		<1	1- <2	2- <3	3- <4	4- <5	5- <6	6- <7	7- <8	8- <9	9- <10	10- <11	11- <12	12- <13	13- <14	14- <15	15- <16	>=16	No idea	Total
	<1	6	2	5	5	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20
	1-<2	6	18	11	8	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	45
	2-<3	39	3	49	38	36	27	10	2	2	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	209
	3-<4	42	0	4	58	44	58	29	12	12	3	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	266
	4-<5	45	0	5	3	86	53	79	29	23	14	8	1	3	0	0	0	1	0	350
	5-<6	123	3	8	9	10	286	126	197	102	32	161	9	12	3	0	34	11	2	1128
	6-<7	50	0	3	0	1	4	115	55	70	17	45	5	9	1	3	4	1	0	383
	7-<8	44	0	2	1	0	4	2	106	88	56	93	12	12	2	6	11	6	2	447
	8-<9	34	0	1	1	1	4	5	2	84	49	126	17	37	9	4	13	12	0	399
	9-<10	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	49	39	20	22	6	10	14	9	0	187
	10-<11	101	0	1	0	0	20	4	8	9	4	264	46	108	43	26	239	149	2	1024
	11-<12	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7	13	13	6	6	10	0	66
	12-<13	17	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	17	8	13	21	17	0	99
	13-<14	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	7	8	12	0	33
	14-<15	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	10	15	1	35
	15-<16	9	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	55	131	0	201
	>=16	86	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	0	14	793	10	913
	Total	635	26	89	124	179	462	370	413	391	227	755	117	236	88	79	430	1167	17	5805
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

¹ सर्वेक्षण, जो रिजर्व बैंक द्वारा द्विमासिक अंतराल पर आयोजित किया जाता है, उत्तरदाताओं के अपेक्षित निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीतिकारी दबाव पर उपयोगी निदेशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और उनकी स्वयं की खपत प्रवृत्ति को प्रतिबिंबित करता है। अतः इन्हें मुद्रास्फीति पर परिवारिक इकाइयो की भावनाओं के रूप में माना जाना चाहिए।

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