आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने दिसम्बर 2018 चक्र के मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 2 के परिणाम जारी किए। सर्वेक्षण 18 शहरों में आयोजित किया गया था और इसके परिणाम 5,828 शहरी परिवारों के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित है।
i. नवम्बर 2018 चक्र के संदर्भ में आगामी तीन माह में और आगे के एक वर्ष के दौरान सामान्य कीमतों में वृद्धि की अपेक्षा करनेवाले उत्तरदाताओं के अनुपात में बड़ी गिरावट आई । ऐसी ही प्रवृत्ति अधिकतर उत्पाद समूहों, विशेषकर खाद्य और गैर खाद्य पदार्थो, में पाई गई (तालिका 1a और 1b)।
ii. उत्तरदाताओं ने भविष्य की कीमतों में बदलाव की दर के संबंध में भी अपनी अपेक्षाओं को कम किया (तालिका 1a और 1b)।
iii. नवम्बर 2018 चक्र के मुक़ाबले आगे के तीन महीनों और आगे के एक वर्ष की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाओं में मात्रात्मक रूप में क्रमश: 80 और 130 आधार अंकों की गिरावट आई (चार्ट 1, तालिका 2)
iv. उत्तरदाताओं के विभिन्न समूहों के लिए मात्रात्मक अपेक्षाओं में गिरावट देखी गई (तालिका 2)।
Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Round |
Dec-17 |
Jun-18 |
Sep-18 |
Nov-18 |
Dec-18 |
Options: General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
80.6 |
83.8 |
80.4 |
0.92 |
77.9 |
0.91 |
72.9 |
1.04 |
Price increase more than current rate |
49.8 |
50.1 |
49.1 |
1.15 |
47.4 |
1.12 |
46.2 |
1.14 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
24.6 |
26.4 |
27.6 |
1.00 |
25.6 |
1.00 |
23.3 |
0.96 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.2 |
7.3 |
3.7 |
0.38 |
4.9 |
0.59 |
3.4 |
0.39 |
No change in prices |
17.4 |
14.6 |
17.4 |
0.88 |
19.2 |
0.87 |
21.2 |
0.98 |
Decline in prices |
2.0 |
1.6 |
2.2 |
0.31 |
2.9 |
0.33 |
5.8 |
0.46 |
Options: Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
78.1 |
81.4 |
79.5 |
0.89 |
77.2 |
0.89 |
70.7 |
0.98 |
Price increase more than current rate |
45.8 |
47.8 |
48.9 |
1.12 |
46.4 |
1.03 |
42.7 |
1.08 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
23.4 |
24.8 |
24.5 |
0.91 |
23.6 |
0.91 |
22.4 |
0.87 |
Price increase less than current rate |
8.9 |
8.7 |
6.1 |
0.48 |
7.3 |
0.63 |
5.7 |
0.48 |
No change in prices |
15.5 |
13.3 |
15.5 |
0.82 |
16.9 |
0.81 |
17.2 |
0.79 |
Decline in prices |
6.4 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
0.40 |
5.9 |
0.46 |
12.0 |
0.65 |
Options: Non-Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
73.3 |
78.2 |
78.9 |
0.87 |
75.8 |
0.90 |
67.6 |
1.00 |
Price increase more than current rate |
41.2 |
44.5 |
47.5 |
1.11 |
45.2 |
1.07 |
40.8 |
1.08 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
23.3 |
24.4 |
25.3 |
0.91 |
24.1 |
0.94 |
21.6 |
0.89 |
Price increase less than current rate |
8.8 |
9.3 |
6.1 |
0.48 |
6.5 |
0.61 |
5.3 |
0.47 |
No change in prices |
21.9 |
17.7 |
17.1 |
0.81 |
18.5 |
0.79 |
20.5 |
0.85 |
Decline in prices |
4.8 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
0.38 |
5.8 |
0.48 |
11.9 |
0.63 |
Options: Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
60.0 |
58.7 |
56.6 |
1.05 |
57.9 |
1.06 |
56.8 |
1.08 |
Price increase more than current rate |
35.0 |
32.6 |
32.4 |
1.05 |
33.8 |
1.03 |
34.8 |
1.08 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
18.6 |
19.1 |
19.5 |
0.80 |
18.9 |
0.80 |
17.9 |
0.85 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.4 |
7.1 |
4.7 |
0.41 |
5.2 |
0.50 |
4.1 |
0.39 |
No change in prices |
28.8 |
30.9 |
30.8 |
0.98 |
29.7 |
0.98 |
24.8 |
0.91 |
Decline in prices |
11.3 |
10.4 |
12.5 |
0.66 |
12.4 |
0.66 |
18.4 |
0.77 |
Options: Housing Prices |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
69.5 |
71.6 |
67.1 |
0.92 |
68.7 |
0.96 |
69.1 |
1.03 |
Price increase more than current rate |
45.9 |
45.3 |
45.2 |
1.02 |
44.5 |
1.05 |
46.5 |
1.06 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
18.0 |
19.9 |
17.9 |
0.78 |
19.0 |
0.83 |
18.2 |
0.79 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.6 |
6.4 |
4.0 |
0.40 |
5.2 |
0.51 |
4.5 |
0.41 |
No change in prices |
21.0 |
20.7 |
24.1 |
0.87 |
23.7 |
0.88 |
22.2 |
0.94 |
Decline in prices |
9.5 |
7.7 |
8.8 |
0.59 |
7.6 |
0.54 |
8.6 |
0.57 |
Options: Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
71.5 |
70.8 |
67.7 |
1.04 |
68.2 |
0.99 |
65.7 |
1.10 |
Price increase more than current rate |
41.4 |
40.8 |
41.8 |
1.15 |
40.4 |
1.06 |
40.2 |
1.11 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
23.2 |
22.8 |
21.0 |
0.89 |
22.4 |
0.86 |
21.2 |
0.82 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.8 |
7.3 |
5.0 |
0.43 |
5.3 |
0.48 |
4.3 |
0.41 |
No change in prices |
25.6 |
26.5 |
29.6 |
1.01 |
28.8 |
0.97 |
28.2 |
1.02 |
Decline in prices |
3.0 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
0.33 |
3.0 |
0.35 |
6.1 |
0.45 |
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses for the September, November and December 2018 rounds. For earlier rounds, the results are based on sample proportions.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |
Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Round |
Dec-17 |
Jun-18 |
Sep-18 |
Nov-18 |
Dec-18 |
Options: General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
92.7 |
91.6 |
88.3 |
0.77 |
89.7 |
0.65 |
83.8 |
0.82 |
Price increase more than current rate |
63.0 |
59.8 |
59.7 |
1.15 |
60.0 |
1.11 |
57.5 |
1.15 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
23.9 |
25.8 |
25.3 |
0.97 |
26.4 |
0.97 |
23.3 |
1.00 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.8 |
6.0 |
3.3 |
0.35 |
3.4 |
0.43 |
3.0 |
0.37 |
No change in prices |
5.3 |
6.5 |
9.1 |
0.69 |
7.6 |
0.57 |
11.3 |
0.73 |
Decline in prices |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.6 |
0.32 |
2.7 |
0.33 |
4.9 |
0.43 |
Options: Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
85.0 |
85.1 |
84.8 |
0.78 |
85.4 |
0.73 |
80.0 |
0.82 |
Price increase more than current rate |
52.1 |
51.4 |
52.5 |
1.16 |
52.3 |
1.14 |
50.6 |
1.08 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
24.9 |
26.5 |
27.0 |
0.96 |
27.5 |
0.96 |
24.7 |
0.93 |
Price increase less than current rate |
8.1 |
7.1 |
5.3 |
0.45 |
5.7 |
0.51 |
4.7 |
0.43 |
No change in prices |
10.4 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
0.64 |
9.4 |
0.60 |
12.1 |
0.68 |
Decline in prices |
4.6 |
5.3 |
5.5 |
0.45 |
5.2 |
0.45 |
7.9 |
0.52 |
Options: Non-Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
80.5 |
83.3 |
82.3 |
0.79 |
82.4 |
0.78 |
76.4 |
0.92 |
Price increase more than current rate |
48.8 |
49.1 |
51.0 |
1.18 |
51.6 |
1.10 |
47.5 |
1.09 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
23.7 |
26.6 |
26.1 |
0.91 |
25.2 |
0.90 |
24.2 |
0.92 |
Price increase less than current rate |
7.9 |
7.6 |
5.2 |
0.44 |
5.6 |
0.50 |
4.7 |
0.43 |
No change in prices |
15.4 |
12.7 |
13.1 |
0.70 |
12.7 |
0.68 |
15.8 |
0.78 |
Decline in prices |
4.2 |
4.0 |
4.6 |
0.40 |
4.9 |
0.43 |
7.7 |
0.54 |
Options: Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
68.8 |
70.6 |
67.5 |
0.97 |
70.1 |
0.98 |
66.9 |
1.02 |
Price increase more than current rate |
42.3 |
41.6 |
40.7 |
1.10 |
43.0 |
1.10 |
42.0 |
1.09 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.8 |
21.8 |
22.0 |
0.83 |
22.0 |
0.88 |
20.4 |
0.84 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.7 |
7.2 |
4.8 |
0.42 |
5.1 |
0.47 |
4.5 |
0.40 |
No change in prices |
21.7 |
21.2 |
22.6 |
0.84 |
20.4 |
0.85 |
20.1 |
0.91 |
Decline in prices |
9.5 |
8.2 |
10.0 |
0.58 |
9.6 |
0.61 |
13.0 |
0.69 |
Options: Housing Prices |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
78.4 |
81.0 |
77.9 |
0.89 |
80.6 |
0.79 |
79.6 |
0.85 |
Price increase more than current rate |
53.3 |
53.0 |
52.9 |
1.08 |
53.8 |
1.04 |
55.9 |
1.00 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.2 |
21.5 |
21.0 |
0.87 |
22.5 |
0.91 |
19.8 |
0.78 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.9 |
6.5 |
4.0 |
0.38 |
4.3 |
0.44 |
3.9 |
0.39 |
No change in prices |
14.0 |
13.3 |
15.1 |
0.74 |
13.3 |
0.68 |
13.7 |
0.74 |
Decline in prices |
7.7 |
5.7 |
7.0 |
0.52 |
6.1 |
0.50 |
6.7 |
0.50 |
Options: Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
82.8 |
84.1 |
82.0 |
0.81 |
83.3 |
0.75 |
77.9 |
0.88 |
Price increase more than current rate |
50.5 |
49.5 |
49.7 |
1.18 |
52.2 |
1.11 |
49.0 |
1.11 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
24.3 |
26.6 |
27.3 |
0.96 |
25.7 |
0.92 |
24.1 |
0.90 |
Price increase less than current rate |
8.0 |
8.0 |
5.0 |
0.44 |
5.4 |
0.48 |
4.8 |
0.44 |
No change in prices |
14.2 |
13.7 |
15.6 |
0.76 |
13.5 |
0.68 |
17.1 |
0.82 |
Decline in prices |
3.0 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
0.29 |
3.1 |
0.34 |
5.0 |
0.44 |
3. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses for the September, November and December 2018 rounds. For earlier rounds, the results are based on sample proportions.
4. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |