आज, भारतीय रिजर्व बैंक ने सितम्बर 2019 चक्र के उपभोक्ता विश्वास सर्वेक्षण (CCS)1 के परिणाम जारी किए। ये सर्वेक्षण 13 शहरों – अहमदाबाद, बेंगलुरु, भोपाल, चेन्नई, दिल्ली, गुवाहाटी, हैदराबाद, जयपुर, कोलकाता, लखनऊ, मुंबई, पटना और तिरुवनंतपुरम में आयोजित किया गया था; तथा इसमें सामान्य आर्थिक स्थिति, रोजगार परिदृश्य, समग्र मूल्य स्थिति और पारिवारिक इकाइयों की आय और व्यय के संबंध में 5,192 पारिवारिक इकाइयों की धारणाओं और अपेक्षाओं के लिए प्रतिक्रियाएं प्राप्त की गईं।
विशेष:
I. उपभोक्ता विश्वास सितम्बर में कमजोर हुआ, तथा मौजूदा स्थिति सूचकांक (CSI)2 और भावी अपेक्षाओं के सूचकांक (FEI) दोनों में गिरावट आयी (चार्ट 1)।
नोट: कृपया समय श्रृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।
II. सामान्य आर्थिक स्थिति (तालिका 1) और रोजगार परिदृश्य (तालिका 2) पर परिवारों की भावनाओं में और गिरावट आई, और वे जुलाई 2019 की तुलना में एक वर्ष (तालिका 5) आगे की अपनी आय पर कम आशावादी थे।
III. उत्तरदाताओं ने पिछले एक वर्ष की तुलना में मूल्य स्तर में वृद्धि होना माना और उनमें से अधिकांश लोगों ने आने वाले वर्ष में कीमतों में और भी वृद्धि की उम्मीद की है (तालिका 3 और 4); नतीजतन, समग्र खर्च के साथ-साथ अनिवार्य खर्च को लेकर भावनाएं मजबूत बनी हुई हैं, यद्यपि विवेकाधीन खर्च पर भावनाएं कमजोर हो गईं (तालिका 6, 7 और 8)।
| Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Improved |
Remained Same |
Worsened |
Net Response |
Will Improve |
Will Remain Same |
Will Worsen |
Net Response |
| Sep-18 |
33.7 |
22.1 |
44.3 |
-10.6 |
53.2 |
16.7 |
30.2 |
23.0 |
| Nov-18 |
33.2 |
21.6 |
45.2 |
-12.0 |
53.6 |
15.3 |
31.2 |
22.4 |
| Dec-18 |
36.7 |
20.2 |
43.1 |
-6.4 |
59.9 |
15.8 |
24.3 |
35.6 |
| Mar-19 |
46.2 |
21.3 |
32.5 |
13.7 |
66.4 |
15.8 |
17.8 |
48.6 |
| May-19 |
38.8 |
23.6 |
37.7 |
1.1 |
61.4 |
17.7 |
20.9 |
40.5 |
| Jul-19 |
37.4 |
24.2 |
38.4 |
-1.0 |
59.4 |
16.0 |
24.6 |
34.8 |
| Sep-19 |
33.5 |
18.6 |
47.9 |
-14.4 |
53.2 |
15.0 |
31.8 |
21.4 |
| Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Improved |
Remained Same |
Worsened |
Net Response |
Will Improve |
Will Remain Same |
Will Worsen |
Net Response |
| Sep-18 |
35.2 |
19.3 |
45.5 |
-10.3 |
54.1 |
17.0 |
29.0 |
25.1 |
| Nov-18 |
33.9 |
18.9 |
47.2 |
-13.3 |
53.5 |
16.1 |
30.4 |
23.1 |
| Dec-18 |
35.6 |
20.1 |
44.3 |
-8.7 |
60.3 |
17.1 |
22.7 |
37.6 |
| Mar-19 |
41.1 |
21.7 |
37.2 |
3.9 |
65.3 |
15.9 |
18.9 |
46.4 |
| May-19 |
33.7 |
22.1 |
44.2 |
-10.5 |
59.3 |
17.6 |
23.1 |
36.2 |
| Jul-19 |
32.5 |
21.9 |
45.6 |
-13.1 |
56.7 |
17.5 |
25.8 |
30.9 |
| Sep-19 |
28.0 |
19.5 |
52.5 |
-24.5 |
51.2 |
15.4 |
33.4 |
17.8 |
| Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Sep-18 |
88.3 |
8.5 |
3.2 |
-85.1 |
80.1 |
12.0 |
7.9 |
-72.2 |
| Nov-18 |
88.3 |
7.8 |
3.8 |
-84.5 |
80.2 |
11.6 |
8.2 |
-72.0 |
| Dec-18 |
84.3 |
10.9 |
4.8 |
-79.5 |
71.6 |
15.9 |
12.5 |
-59.1 |
| Mar-19 |
77.8 |
16.4 |
5.8 |
-72.0 |
68.7 |
20.5 |
10.9 |
-57.8 |
| May-19 |
81.6 |
14.1 |
4.3 |
-77.3 |
70.3 |
18.7 |
11.0 |
-59.3 |
| Jul-19 |
81.7 |
15.0 |
3.3 |
-78.4 |
73.9 |
16.1 |
10.0 |
-63.9 |
| Sep-19 |
86.1 |
10.6 |
3.3 |
-82.8 |
75.9 |
13.8 |
10.3 |
-65.6 |
| Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Sep-18 |
80.8 |
13.2 |
6.1 |
-74.7 |
79.8 |
14.2 |
6.1 |
-73.7 |
| Nov-18 |
80.0 |
13.9 |
6.1 |
-73.9 |
75.9 |
18.0 |
6.1 |
-69.8 |
| Dec-18 |
77.9 |
15.2 |
6.9 |
-71.0 |
76.3 |
17.3 |
6.4 |
-69.9 |
| Mar-19 |
72.5 |
20.0 |
7.6 |
-64.9 |
72.9 |
20.8 |
6.3 |
-66.6 |
| May-19 |
74.4 |
20.8 |
4.8 |
-69.6 |
76.7 |
18.5 |
4.8 |
-71.9 |
| Jul-19 |
72.5 |
22.3 |
5.2 |
-67.3 |
77.8 |
18.0 |
4.1 |
-73.7 |
| Sep-19 |
74.2 |
19.5 |
6.3 |
-67.9 |
77.9 |
16.1 |
6.1 |
-71.8 |
| *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
| Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Sep-18 |
28.3 |
48.3 |
23.4 |
4.9 |
59.1 |
33.1 |
7.8 |
51.3 |
| Nov-18 |
29.9 |
49.5 |
20.5 |
9.4 |
59.0 |
34.3 |
6.7 |
52.3 |
| Dec-18 |
29.8 |
48.2 |
22.0 |
7.8 |
63.5 |
30.4 |
6.2 |
57.3 |
| Mar-19 |
30.1 |
50.0 |
19.9 |
10.2 |
60.8 |
33.4 |
5.7 |
55.1 |
| May-19 |
29.0 |
50.2 |
20.8 |
8.2 |
58.9 |
35.1 |
6.0 |
52.9 |
| Jul-19 |
25.8 |
51.3 |
22.9 |
2.9 |
55.4 |
37.7 |
6.9 |
48.5 |
| Sep-19 |
25.0 |
48.3 |
26.7 |
-1.7 |
53.0 |
37.4 |
9.6 |
43.4 |
| Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Sep-18 |
78.4 |
18.2 |
3.5 |
74.9 |
81.2 |
15.7 |
3.1 |
78.1 |
| Nov-18 |
73.0 |
23.9 |
3.1 |
69.9 |
77.6 |
19.0 |
3.4 |
74.2 |
| Dec-18 |
73.8 |
22.7 |
3.5 |
70.3 |
77.3 |
18.7 |
4.0 |
73.3 |
| Mar-19 |
70.1 |
26.8 |
3.1 |
67.0 |
77.5 |
19.9 |
2.6 |
74.9 |
| May-19 |
68.6 |
28.0 |
3.4 |
65.2 |
74.7 |
22.5 |
2.9 |
71.8 |
| Jul-19 |
71.7 |
25.0 |
3.4 |
68.3 |
76.8 |
20.1 |
3.2 |
73.6 |
| Sep-19 |
74.1 |
22.0 |
3.8 |
70.3 |
77.0 |
19.0 |
4.0 |
73.0 |
| Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Sep-18 |
83.6 |
13.1 |
3.4 |
80.2 |
84.2 |
13.1 |
2.7 |
81.5 |
| Nov-18 |
83.4 |
13.4 |
3.2 |
80.2 |
84.1 |
12.5 |
3.3 |
80.8 |
| Dec-18 |
82.4 |
14.5 |
3.1 |
79.3 |
83.5 |
13.0 |
3.4 |
80.1 |
| Mar-19 |
78.6 |
18.2 |
3.2 |
75.4 |
83.4 |
14.3 |
2.3 |
81.1 |
| May-19 |
80.0 |
17.1 |
2.9 |
77.1 |
80.7 |
16.5 |
2.8 |
77.9 |
| Jul-19 |
81.7 |
15.7 |
2.6 |
79.1 |
82.9 |
14.3 |
2.8 |
80.1 |
| Sep-19 |
83.8 |
13.6 |
2.6 |
81.2 |
83.0 |
13.7 |
3.3 |
79.7 |
| Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Sep-18 |
44.0 |
34.3 |
21.7 |
22.3 |
49.2 |
33.3 |
17.5 |
31.7 |
| Nov-18 |
39.1 |
37.6 |
23.3 |
15.8 |
44.5 |
35.9 |
19.6 |
24.9 |
| Dec-18 |
38.4 |
37.5 |
24.1 |
14.3 |
46.1 |
33.0 |
20.9 |
25.2 |
| Mar-19 |
36.3 |
43.3 |
20.4 |
15.9 |
46.1 |
37.6 |
16.3 |
29.8 |
| May-19 |
32.7 |
40.3 |
27.0 |
5.7 |
39.4 |
37.3 |
23.3 |
16.1 |
| Jul-19 |
31.0 |
44.9 |
24.1 |
6.9 |
36.2 |
42.2 |
21.6 |
14.6 |
| Sep-19 |
29.9 |
40.0 |
30.1 |
-0.2 |
34.7 |
39.2 |
26.0 |
8.7 |
|