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Date : Jan 23, 2006
I. The Real Economy

The robust performance of the Indian economy continued during the second quarter (July-September) of 2005-06. According to the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), the economy recorded a real GDP growth of 8.0 per cent in the second quarter of 2005-06 maintaining the momentum of growth in the first quarter, and notably higher than that of 6.7 per cent a year ago (Chart 1). Although there was some loss of pace in manufacturing activity during the second quarter from the double-digit growth of the first quarter, it was more or less offset by a stronger growth in the services sector, especially the sub-sector ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’. Real GDP originating from the ‘agricultural and allied activities’ benefited from the positive impact of the near normal South-West monsoon. Overall, the economy thus recorded a real GDP growth of 8.1 per cent in the first half of 2005-06, one percentage point higher than a year ago (Table 1).

Against the backdrop of the overall performance of the Indian economy in the first half of 2005-06, this Section presents developments in the Indian economy during 2005-06 so far covering the agricultural sector, industrial production, business and investment expectations and the lead indicators of service sector activity.

Agricultural Situation

The progress of the South-West monsoon season (June-September) 2005 was satisfactory. Although the monsoon was initially weak - till June 22, 2005,

 

Table 1: Growth Rates of Real GDP

 

Sector

1993-94

2003-

2004-

 

2004-05

 

2005-06

2004-

2005-

     

to

04*

05#

           

05

06

           

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

   
     

2002-03

                   
                       

H1

H1

     

(Average)

                   
                           
 

1

 

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

                           

1.

Agriculture and Allied

                     
 

Activities

2.1

9.6

1.1

3.8

0.0

-0.5

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

     

(26.5)

(21.7)

(20.5)

               
                           
 

1.1

Agriculture

2.0

10.3

N.A

               
                           

2.

Industry

6.6

6.5

8.3

7.6

9.1

9.2

7.3

10.1

7.6

8.3

8.8

     

(22.1)

(21.6)

(21.9)

               
                           
 

2.1

Mining and Quarrying

4.7

6.4

4.5

6.9

4.7

4.5

2.5

3.2

-1.1

5.8

1.1

                           
 

2.2

Manufacturing

7.1

6.9

9.2

7.9

9.6

10.5

8.6

11.3

9.2

8.8

10.2

                           
 

2.3

Electricity, Gas and

                     
   

Water Supply

5.2

3.7

5.5

6.1

9.1

4.4

2.6

7.9

3.3

7.6

5.6

                           

3.

Services

7.8

8.9

8.6

9.1

7.7

8.8

8.8

9.6

9.8

8.4

9.7

     

(51.4)

(56.7)

(57.6)

               
                           
 

3.1

Trade, Hotels,

                     
   

Restaurants,

                     
   

Transport, Storage and

                     
   

Communication

8.8

11.8

11.4

11.5

12.3

10.8

11.1

12.4

12.0

11.9

12.2

                           
 

3.2

Financing, Insurance,

                     
   

Real Estate and

                     
   

Business Services

8.0

7.1

7.1

7.0

5.5

8.2

7.7

8.3

9.9

6.2

9.1

                           
 

3.3

Community, Social

                     
   

and Personal services

6.9

5.8

5.9

8.2

3.0

5.6

7.2

6.1

6.7

5.4

6.4

                           
 

3.4

Construction

5.7

7.0

5.2

5.0

4.6

7.2

4.1

7.9

7.4

4.8

7.6

                           

4. Real GDP at Factor Cost

6.0

8.5

6.9

7.6

6.7

6.4

7.0

8.1

8.0

7.1

8.1

     

(100)

(100)

(100)

               
                           

* : Quick Estimates.
# : Revised Estimates.
N.A : Not Available.
Note: Figures in parentheses denote shares in real GDP.
Source: Central Statistical Organisation.

the cumulative rainfall was 49 per cent below normal – it picked up in the subsequent period and the cumulative rainfall recorded during the season was only one per cent below normal as compared with 13 per cent below normal during the previous year. Of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions, cumulative rainfall was excess/normal in 32 sub-divisions (23 sub-divisions during last year) and deficient in 4 sub-divisions (13 sub divisions). At the district level, 72 percent of the total number of districts received excess/normal rainfall, while the rest received deficient rain.

The cumulative rainfall during the North-East Monsoon season (October 1 to December 31, 2005) was 10 per cent above normal as compared with 11 per cent below normal during the corresponding period of the previous year although the distribution of the rainfall was skewed (Chart 2). The total live water storage

as on January 6, 2005 in the 76 major reservoirs1 monitored by the Central Water Commission improved to 65 per cent of the Full Reservoir Level (FRL) from 45 per cent a year ago.

A satisfactory monsoon during 2005-06 coupled with adequate water reservoir levels have facilitated improved area coverage under both kharif and rabi crops. The area under kharif crops was 1.2 per cent higher than a year ago, led by increased area under rice, maize, pulses and sugarcane. As regards rabi crops, the area coverage as on January 2, 2006 was 1.5 per cent higher than a year ago on account of increased coverage in respect of major crops such as wheat and rapeseed (Table 2).

Agricultural production estimates are available for the kharif crop. According to the First Advance Estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture on September 19, 2005, total kharif foodgrains production during 2005-06 at 105.3 million tonnes will be marginally higher (1.9 per cent) than last year but notably lower than that achieved in 2003-04 (Tables 3 and 4). The increase in the foodgrains production is expected to emanate mainly from higher output of rice, maize and pulses. Among the commercial crops, the output of cotton, oilseeds and jute is estimated to decline while that of sugarcane and mesta is expected to show an improvement.

Food Management

The total procurement of rice and wheat during 2005-06 (up to January 3, 2006) at 33.7 million tonnes was 1.6 per cent lower than that in the

1 These reservoirs account for 63 per cent of the total reservoir capacity of the country.

Table 2: Progress of Area under Crops - 2005-06

     

(Million Hectares)

Crop

Normal Area

 

Area Coverage

   

2004

2005

Variation

       

(2005 over 2004)

       

(Per cent)

1

2

3

4

5

 

Kharif Crops

     

Rice

39.9

35.5

37.1

4.6

Coarse Cereals

22.9

22.5

21.9

-2.5

Of which

       

Bajra

9.3

9.1

8.2

-9.4

Jowar

4.6

3.9

3.8

-3.3

Maize

6.0

7.0

7.3

5.2

Pulses

10.6

11.2

11.4

1.4

Oilseeds

15.1

18.0

17.6

-2.6

Of which

       

Groundnut

5.5

5.8

5.6

-3.1

Soyabean

6.3

8.0

7.7

-3.1

Sesamum

1.6

2.0

1.9

-6.4

Niger

0.5

0.5

0.4

-23.2

Cotton

8.3

8.6

8.6

0.0

Sugarcane

4.3

3.8

4.1

10.3

All Crops

101.9

100.4

101.6

1.2

Rabi Crops (As on January 2, 2005)

Wheat

26.3

24.1

24.3

0.9

Rice

3.8

0.8

0.8

4.3

Coarse Cereals

6.5

6.8

6.8

-0.1

Of which

       

Jowar

5.1

5.2

5.1

-2.5

Maize

0.7

0.7

0.7

-0.8

Barley

0.7

0.8

0.8

1.8

Oilseeds

7.8

9.6

9.9

3.4

Of which

       

Rapeseed

5.1

6.7

7.2

6.8

Groundnut

0.8

0.5

0.4

-15.8

Sunflower

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.4

Sesamum

0.2

0.1

0.1

13.6

Linseed

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.5

All Crops

55.5

53.1

53.9

1.5

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.

corresponding period of the previous year. The total off-take of foodgrains (rice and wheat) during 2005-06 (up to October 31, 2005) at 23.4 million tonnes was marginally higher by 0.2 per cent over the corresponding period of the preceding year, mainly due to a rise in the off-take under the Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS) and the other welfare schemes (OWS) (Table 5). Reflecting the lower procurement, the total stocks of foodgrains with the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and the State agencies stood at around 19.8

Table 3: Kharif Production: 2005-06

         

(Million Tonnes)

           

Crops

 

2004-05*

2005-06**

Variation

         

(Per cent)

           

1

   

2

3

4

           

Total Foodgrains

   

103.3

105.3

1.9

Rice

   

71.7

73.8

3.0

Coarse Cereals

   

26.7

26.4

-1.0

Bajra

   

8.1

7.8

-3.9

Jowar

   

4.0

3.9

-3.5

Maize

   

11.6

12.2

4.9

Total Pulses

   

5.0

5.0

0.6

Tur

   

2.6

2.3

-10.5

Other Kharif Pulses

   

2.4

2.7

12.6

Total Oilseeds

   

14.9

14.6

-2.5

Groundnut

   

5.3

5.9

11.4

Soyabean

   

7.5

6.6

-12.4

Cotton#

   

17.0

15.9

-6.5

Jute@

   

9.6

9.2

-4.3

Mesta@

   

0.9

0.9

1.2

Sugarcane

   

232.3

257.7

10.9

           

# : Million bales of 170 kgs. each.
@ :Million bales of 180 kgs. each.
* : Fourth Advance Estimates.
** : First Advance Estimates.
Note : The figures given for individual crops will not add up to coarse
cereals, total foodgrains and total oilseeds as some individual crops
are not covered in the table.
Source :Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.

million tonnes as on November 1, 2005, about 16.5 per cent lower than a year ago. The stocks, however, remained higher than the buffer stock norms (16.2 million tonnes). The decline in stocks was mainly on account of wheat stocks

Table 4: Agricultural Production

           

(Million Tonnes)

Crop

       

2003-04

 

2004-05

       

T

A

T

A $

               

1

     

2

3

5

6

               

Rice

     

93.0

88.3

93.5

85.3

Wheat

     

78.0

72.1

79.5

72.0

Coarse Cereals

   

34.0

38.1

36.8

33.9

Pulses

     

15.0

14.9

15.3

13.4

Total Foodgrains

 

220.0

213.5

225.1

204.6

Kharif

     

111.7

116.9

113.8

103.3

Rabi

     

108.3

96.6

111.3

101.3

Total Oilseeds

   

24.7

25.3

26.2

26.1

Kharif

     

14.7

16.8

16.3

14.9

Rabi

     

10.7

8.5

9.9

11.2

Cotton #

     

15.0

13.9

15.0

17.0

Jute and Mesta ##

 

12.0

11.2

11.8

10.5

Sugarcane

     

320.0

237.3

270.0

232.3

               

T : Target
A:Achievement
$: Fourth Advance Estimates as on September 19, 2005.
# : Million bales of 170 kgs each.
##: Million bales of 180 kgs each.
Source : Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.


Table 5: Management of Food Stocks

                     

(Million Tonnes)

   

Opening Stock of

Procurement of

 

Foodgrains off-take

Closing

Norms

     

Foodgrains

Foodgrains

       

Stock

 

Month

 

Rice

Wheat

Total

Rice

Wheat

Total

PDS

OWS

OMS -

Exports

   
                   

Domestic

     

1

 

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

                           

2004

                         

April

 

13.1

6.9

20.6

1.2

14.5

15.7

2.0

0.5

0.0

0.3

32.4

15.8

May

 

12.7

19.0

32.4

1.3

1.7

3.0

2.3

0.6

0.0

0.1

32.3

 

June

 

12.3

19.4

32.3

0.9

0.5

1.4

2.3

1.0

0.0

0.1

30.6

 

July

 

10.8

19.2

30.6

0.4

0.1

0.5

2.4

1.0

0.0

0.1

27.2

24.3

August

 

9.1

17.4

27.2

0.5

0.0

0.5

2.4

1.0

0.0

0.1

23.0

 

September

7.1

15.8

23.0

0.2

0.0

0.2

2.5

1.0

0.0

0.1

20.3

 

October

6.1

14.2

20.3

7.4

0.0

7.4

2.4

0.8

0.0

0.0

23.7

18.1

November

11.0

12.6

23.7

1.9

0.0

1.9

2.4

0.6

0.0

0.0

21.8

 

December

11.1

10.7

21.8

3.2

0.0

3.2

2.6

0.7

0.0

0.0

21.7

 
                           

2005

                         

January

12.8

8.9

21.7

3.9

0.0

3.9

2.7

0.8

0.0

0.0

21.5

16.8

February

14.2

7.3

21.5

2.3

0.0

2.3

2.7

0.9

0.0

0.0

20.0

 

March

 

13.7

5.8

20.0

1.7

0.0

1.7

2.7

1.7

0.0

0.0

18.0

 

April

 

13.3

4.1

18.0

1.2

12.8

14.0

2.4

0.8

0.0

0.0

28.5

16.2

May

 

13.0

15.1

28.5

1.2

2.0

3.1

2.5

0.8

0.0

0.0

27.9

 

June

 

11.6

15.7

27.9

0.8

0.1

0.9

2.5

1.5

.0.0

0.0

25.1

 

July

 

10.1

14.5

25.1

0.4

0.0

0.4

2.7

0.8

0.1

0.0

21.4

26.9

August

 

8.0

13.0

21.4

0.9

0.0

0.9

2.5

0.8

0.1

0.0

18.4

 

September

6.4

11.6

18.4

0.4

0.0

0.4

2.6

0.7

0.1

0.0

15.6

 

October

4.8

10.3

15.5

7.6

0.0

7.6

2.2

0.5

0.0

0.0

19.8

16.2

November

10.3

9.1

19.8

2.7

0.0

2.7

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

 

December

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

3.4

0.0

3.4

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

 

January*

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

0.4

0.0

0.4

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

 
                           

PDS : Public Distribution System.
OWS : Other Welfare Schemes.
OMS : Open Market Sales.
N.A. :Not Available.
* :Up to January 3, 2006.
Note:Closing stock figures may differ from those arrived at by adding the opening
stocks and procurement and deducting offtake, as stocks include coarse grains.
Source : Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution,
Government of India.

which fell by 28.3 per cent from a year ago levels due to lower procurement. Wheat stocks as on November 1, 2005 were 9.1 million tonnes as compared with the buffer stock norms of 11.0 million tonnes.

Industrial Performance

Manufacturing activity witnessed a strong performance during April-November 2005. Although there was some loss of momentum in July 2005, the cumulative growth during the first eight months at 9.4 per cent was higher than a year ago (9.1 per cent). The mining and electricity sectors, on the other hand, recorded a deceleration. The sharp slowdown in the mining sector may be

attributable in part to a decline in production of crude oil caused by the break-out of fire in the Mumbai-High oil field in July 2005 and the adverse impact of heavy rainfall on coal mining activities. Lower growth in the electricity sector is attributable to shortage of coal and gas. On the whole, industrial production recorded a growth of 8.3 per cent during April-November 2005 on top of 8.6 per cent in the corresponding period of the preceding year (Chart 3).

Manufacturing activity was broad-based. According to the use-based classification, all major industry groups, except intermediate goods, recorded an acceleration during April-November 2005 (Chart 4). Capital goods recorded

a robust growth of 15.9 per cent - the highest growth during April-November period since 1996-97 (16.5 per cent) - on the back of strong investment demand in the economy. Higher production of textile machinery, industrial machinery, turbines, ship building and repair, material handling equipment, laboratory and scientific instruments, dumpers and boilers propped up the capital goods sector. Consumer goods also recorded a double-digit growth and contributed 48.0 per cent to the overall IIP growth during April-November 2005. While consumer durables sector maintained its high growth, the non-durables segment accelerated due to sugar, milk powder, cotton hosiery cloth, beverages, tobacco and related products. Basic goods recorded a moderate pick-up benefiting from cement, carbon steel, soda ash, caustic soda, salt, sponge iron, aluminium extrusions and aluminium ingots. Intermediate goods sector, however, witnessed a subdued performance largely on account of a slack in petrochemical products, wood and wood products, textile yarns and fibres, finished leather, metal products and parts.

At the two-digit level manufacturing, 13 out of 17 industry groups recorded a positive growth during April-November 2005. Nine industry groups recorded an accelerated growth as compared with eight industry groups in the corresponding period of the previous year. The group ‘other manufacturing industries’ recorded the highest growth of 23.3 per cent during April-November 2005 followed by textile products (including wearing apparel) at 21.6 per cent (Table 6).

Table 6: Growth Performance of Manufacturing Industry Groups: April-November 2005

 

Acceleration in Growth

 

Deceleration in Growth

 

Negative Growth

           

1.

Other manufacturing

1.

Chemicals and chemical

1.

Wool, silk and man-made

 

industries (23.3)

 

products (12.0)

 

fibre textiles (-1.0)

2.

Textile products

2.

Machinery and equipment other

2.

Metal products and parts

 

(including wearing

 

than transport equipment (10.1)

 

(except machinery and

 

apparels) (21.6)

     

equipment) (-2.1)

3.

Beverages, tobacco and

3.

Rubber, plastic, petroleum and

3.

Wood and wood products,

 

related products (17.0)

 

coal products (2.7)

 

furniture and fixtures (-3.5)

4.

Basic metal and alloy

4.

Leather and leather and

4.

Food products (-4.3)

 

industries (15.3)

 

fur products (1.4)

   

5.

Transport equipment and

       
 

parts (12.5)

       

6.

Cotton textiles (11.7)

       

7.

Non-metallic mineral

       
 

products (8.2)

       

8.

Paper and paper products (5.8)

       

9.

Jute and other vegetable

       
 

fibre textiles (2.6)

       
           

Note: Figures in parentheses are growth rates during April-November, 2005.


 

Infrastructure

During April-November 2005, the infrastructure sector continued to remain subdued on account of a decline in crude petroleum and petroleum refinery products as well as a deceleration in growth in other infrastructure industries barring cement (Chart 5). Cement production benefited from the strong growth in domestic demand as well as high exports. Steel production was upheld by domestic demand, although growth was slightly lower than that recorded in last year. Heavy rainfall during the monsoon season pulled down growth in the coal sector. Growth in the electricity sector decelerated on account of inadequate availability of coal and gas. Crude oil recorded negative growth on account of disruption in production activity owing to break-out of fire in Mumbai High oilfield on July 27, 2005.

Business Expectations Surveys

Business expectation surveys suggest that the current phase of industrial activity is likely to continue in the near future (Table 7). FICCI’s latest business

Table 7: Business Expectations Surveys

Agency

Business Expectations

Growth over

     

previous round

 

Expectation for

Index

 
     

(Per cent)

       

1

2

3

4

       

Dun & Bradstreet

October-December 2005

Business Optimism Index

7.1

NCAER

October 2005-March 2006

Business Confidence Index

1.3

FICCI

October 2005-March 2006

Business Confidence Index

2.3

CII

September 2005-March 2006

Business Confidence Index

1.5

RBI

January-March 2006

Business Expectations Index

2.4

confidence survey indicates that industrial activity is expected to record a strong growth in the remaining part of the fiscal year. According to the survey, 70 per cent of the respondents reported capacity utilisation of over 75 per cent reflecting strong demand conditions in the economy. Demand conditions are expected to further strengthen with 83 per cent of the respondents expecting ‘higher to much higher sales’ and 51 per cent of respondents expecting ‘higher to much higher investment’. 34 per cent of the participating companies are planning to add to their workforce. Rising cost of raw materials was, however, viewed as a constraint by a majority (76 per cent) of the respondents and 29 per cent respondents foresaw an increase in their selling prices over the next six months. Similar findings emerge from the latest survey of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). The survey results for the second half of 2005-06 show that: (i) 80 per cent of the respondents plan to increase investment; (ii) 60 per cent expect capacity utilisation to be up to 100 per cent and another 19 per cent expect capacity utilisation to exceed 100 per cent; and (iii) 84 per cent expect employment to increase. According to the survey, the confidence index was significantly higher for non-manufacturing firms compared to the manufacturing firms.

According to the Reserve Bank’s latest Industrial Outlook Survey, the Business Expectations Index for January-March 2006 quarter increased by 2.4 per cent over the previous quarter (Chart 6). The expectations index based on the assessment for October-December 2005 was robust showing a rise of 8.2 per cent over the previous quarter, the highest since the inception of the survey.

Survey results indicate that employment, selling prices, imports and profit margins are expected to improve during the quarter January-March 2006 vis-à-vis October-December 2005. On the other hand, the overall business situation,

 

Table 8: Net Response on ‘A Quarter Ahead’ Expectations about Industrial Performance

             

(Per cent)

     

Jan-

Apr-

July-

Oct-

Jan-

 

Parameter

Response

March

June

Sept.

Dec.

March

     

2005

2005

2005

2005

2006

     

(987)

(987)

(816)

(961)

(934)

 

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1

Overall business situation

Better

47.4

44.3

45.5

51.3

49.8

2

Financial situation

Better

37.5

36.7

36.7

42.3

40.7

3

Working capital finance

Increase

29.2

27.2

28.8

32.7

31.9

 

requirement

           

4

Availability of finance

Improve

31.3

30.8

30.7

34.1

34.1

5

Production

Increase

45.9

38.7

40.7

46.9

46.3

6

Order books

Increase

42.2

37.4

39.6

43.7

41.0

7

Cost of raw material

Decrease

-41.8

-36.7

-43.6

-30.0

-35.9

8

Inventory of raw material

Below average

-7.4

-4.3

-4.2

-6.9

-6.8

9

Inventory of finished goods

Below average

-5.2

-3.1

-4.2

-3.3

-4.7

10

Capacity utilisation

Increase

31.3

27.7

25.4

31.1

29.6

11

Level of capacity utilisation

Above normal

12.9

8.1

7.6

10.9

11.4

12

Assessment of the

More than adequate

6.6

5.7

5.3

5.0

4.9

 

production capacity

           

13

Employment in the company

Increase

8.0

7.7

7.8

12.7

13.3

14

Exports, if applicable

Increase

31.5

30.2

32.5

33.3

31.8

15

Imports, if any

Increase

22.2

20.3

23.7

19.2

20.8

16

Selling prices are expected to

Increase

8.6

11.0

13.3

7.8

10.8

17

If increase expected

Increase at lower rate

8.2

13.5

14.0

16.6

16.3

 

in selling prices

           

18

Profit margin

Increase

5.6

6.3

7.1

9.6

12.6

               

Note : 1. Figures in parentheses represent number of companies covered in the Survey.
2. 'Net response' is measured as the per cent share differential between the companies
reporting 'optimistic' (positive) and 'pessimistic' (negative) responses; responses
indicating status quo (no change) are not reckoned. Higher 'net response' indicates
higher level of confidence and vice versa.

financial situation, production, order books, capacity utilisation, and exports are expected to show some decline over the previous quarter. However, the expectations of all these indicators for January-March 2006 are better than that in the corresponding quarter of 2005 (Table 8).

Services Sector

Services sector growth accelerated to 9.8 per cent during the second quarter of 2005-06 from 9.6 per cent in the previous quarter and 7.7 per cent a year ago, led by its major constituent sectors (Chart 7 and Table 1).

Construction activity was buoyed up by rise in demand for housing. Rise in domestic and international tourism, both business as well as leisure, aided growth of the hotel industry. Higher revenue earning freight traffic of railways, civil aviation and port traffic reflecting increased economic activity propped up the transport sector. Robust growth in the cellular subscriber base and steady growth in

broadband connections supported the strong growth in the communication sector. Sustained growth in bank deposits and non-food credit as well as increased exports of information technology enabled services boosted the sub-sector ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’. Community, social and personal services increased due to increase in revenue expenditure on ‘other economic services’, ‘defence revenue expenditure’, plan revenue expenditure of the Central Government on ‘social services’, and pension payments. Latest available information on the major indicators of services sector indicates continued buoyancy in 2005-06 (Table 9).

Table 9: Indicators of Service Sector Activity

 

(Growth rates in per cent)

Sub-sector

April-October 2004

April-October 2005

1

2

3

Tourist arrivals

24.8

12.7

Commercial vehicles production (April-November)

30.3

15.3

Railway revenue earning freight traffic

7.7

9.5

New cell phone connections

29.6

38.4

Cargo handled at major ports

10.7

11.7

Civil aviation

   

a) Export cargo handled

11.9

15.5

b) Import cargo handled

32.5

12.3

c) Passengers handled at international terminals

15.3

12.8

d) Passengers handled at domestic terminals

25.1

22.5

Roads: Upgradation of Highways

4.6

-5.9

Cement (April-November)

6.7

10.6

Steel (April-November)

8.0

7.2

Aggregate deposits (April-December)

7.5

14.0

Non-food credit (April-December)

18.2

22.3

Central Government expenditure (April-November)

-5.6

10.8

The normal South-West monsoon, the sustained growth of the manufacturing, the buoyancy in services and the positive business confidence and expectations have further brightened growth prospects for 2005-06 (Table 10).

Table 10: Projections of Real Gross Domestic Product for India by Various Agencies: 2005-06

Agency

 

Growth Projections for 2005-06 (Per cent)

 

Month of Projections

 

Overall Growth

Agriculture

Industry

Services

 

1

 

2

3

4

5

6

ADB

 

6.9

4.4

6.7

7.7

September, 2005

BIS

 

7.1

     

June, 2005

CII

a)

7.2

3.0

8.1

8.3

May, 2005

 

b)

7.3

3.2

   

October, 2005

             

CMIE

a)

6.0

(-)0.7

8.5

7.5

June 2005

 

b)

6.8

3.0

8.5

7.5

August, 2005

 

c)

7.6

3.0

8.1

9.2

December, 2005

             

CRISIL

a)

7.0

3.0

7.0

8.6

May, 2005

 

b)

7.0

2.5

7.4

8.5

September, 2005

             

NCAER

a)

7.2

3.30

7.61

8.55

May, 2005

 

b)

7.05-7.1

2.5

7.54

8.55

July, 2005

 

c)

7.6

3.4

8.0

9.0

November, 2005

             

IMF

a)

6.7

     

April, 2005

 

b)

7.1

     

September, 2005

             

Ministry of

a)

7.0

3.0

Expected

Expected

May, 2005

Finance

     

to perform

to perform

 
       

well

well

 
 

b)

Over 7.0

3.0-3.5

8.5-10.0 per cent growth in

December, 2005

       

industrial and services sectors

 
             

Reserve

a)

Around 7.0

Growth in agriculture around 3.0 per cent; industry and

April, 2005

Bank of

   

services expected to maintain their current growth

 
     

momentum

     
 

b)

7.0-7.5

Pick-up in agricultural output and in the momentum in

October, 2005

     

industrial and services sectors

   

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